Over the past week, tensions between the U.S. and Iran have intensified, sparking market concerns over further disruptions in energy transit through the Strait of Hormuz and driving up oil futures prices.
Following Iran’s weekend claim that it attacked three vessels that had entered designated shipping lanes without authorization, as well as three ships linked to the United States, reports emerged suggesting a possible agreement between Iran and Oman. Bloomberg was unable to immediately verify these claims, and individuals who have traveled through the Strait of Hormuz said they observed no signs of major Iranian attacks in recent days.
Earlier, U.S. military officials stated that American forces had struck three Iranian oil tankers—destroying one—in retaliation for Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launching ballistic missiles at two U.S. Navy warships. Additionally, sources familiar with the matter reported that Saudi Aramco facilities near Jizan in the Red Sea were targeted again on Monday, though this attack caused no significant damage.
Since the conflict erupted more than six months ago, Brent crude prices have surged by over 30%, although they remain far below the peak of more than $126 per barrel reached in late April. With Russia-Ukraine war exacerbating supply tightness, prices of refined products such as diesel have risen even more sharply.
Despite heightened shipping risks, oil continues to flow out of the Persian Gulf. Macquarie Group cited client conversations on Monday indicating that approximately 7 million barrels per day of crude and refined oil are currently being transported through the Strait of Hormuz—compared to pre-conflict levels of around 20 million barrels daily. U.S. officials have repeatedly emphasized strong oil exports over the past week.
In a report, Goldman Sachs analysts including Daan Struyven wrote: “Markets are increasingly factoring in the possibility of a prolonged Middle East conflict.” They slightly raised their oil price forecasts, assuming shipping disruptions could persist until 2027. “Our outlook remains clearly upward-biased.”
Iran has indicated that an agreement with Oman on managing shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is imminent, which could strengthen Tehran’s control over the vital waterway and raise questions about how the U.S. will respond.
On Monday, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Ismail Baqaei told reporters in Tehran that the two countries have been negotiating for weeks and the deal is now in its final stages, including details on temporary secure shipping routes through this critical energy corridor.
