With Middle East tensions escalating again, driving oil prices higher and intensifying inflation concerns and expectations for tighter monetary policy, equities and bonds were sold off, pushing gold lower.
The MSCI Asia-Pacific stock index dropped 2%, hitting a one-week low, with five times as many declining stocks as gainers. All 11 industry sectors declined, reflecting widespread market caution. European stock futures indicated that European markets would extend their losing streak into a third consecutive trading day.
Energy prices surged again, heightening inflation worries. Government spending and corporate borrowing on a large scale for artificial intelligence development had already raised inflation concerns. Traders now see over a 50% chance of interest rate hikes by the four major central banks this month, prompting investors to assess whether rising oil prices and bond yields will further pressure equities and other assets.
Brent crude rose 0.8% to $95.35 per barrel, poised to mark its fifth consecutive trading day of gains.
The U.S. August ISM manufacturing PMI released overnight fell to 54.6, while the employment component dropped to 51.2. The weak ISM reading has heightened investor focus on tonight’s ADP employment report.
Plugin Case Analysis
Gold: Tonight’s ADP employment data could become a turning point in gold’s recent downward trend. If the data is weak, prices may stabilize around 4,300; conversely, if it comes in strong, prices could test levels near 4,220. Given the disappointing ISM figures overnight, we are willing to place a breakout-and-retest buy order ahead of the ADP release. However, risk management remains crucial given the volatility before the data.
(Gold 15-minute chart)
Nasdaq: Prices broke below the recent correction lows overnight, returning close to the key psychological level of 29,000. Intraday opportunities for buying on pullbacks should be monitored, with the ADP report tonight being the critical catalyst.
(Nasdaq 15-minute chart)
Crude Oil: With prices entering the 90–95 range—a high-risk zone dominated by news sensitivity—we recommend waiting for further clarity before taking positions. For detailed positioning guidance, please consult the plugin.
(Crude Oil 15-minute chart)
Key Financial Data and Events Today:
20:15 U.S. August ADP private sector employment
