Market Focus Analysis:
Pulse Focus 1: The Fed maintained interest rates at 3.5–3.75% at its July meeting, and Wash avoided answering reporters’ hawkish questions following the statement.
Focus Analysis: No rate hike in July, and certainly not in September, as the midterm elections are approaching in November. Wash avoided answering questions about rising Treasury yields, revealing his underlying reluctance to raise interest rates.
Asset update: London gold surged overnight to 4116, and is currently consolidating in a triangular pattern around 4080/90. The lower support aligns with the structure at 4040/50, presenting potential buying opportunities on pullbacks. Meanwhile, if prices hold above 4100/15, further upside potential will open up.
Pulse Focus 2: U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 7.167 million barrels as of July 24, far exceeding the expected decline of 1.272 million barrels. Strategic reserves also continued to drop by 3.797 million barrels.
Focus Analysis: Ongoing tensions between the U.S. and Iran are driving down U.S. crude oil inventories, with strategic reserves continuing to decline. This will provide a short-term boost to oil prices. However, in the medium to long term, this situation is unsustainable and will force the U.S. and Iran into new negotiations.
Price reminder: The key support-resistance zone for U.S. crude oil today is between 82.60 and 83.40; if prices break below this range, they could potentially decline further toward the 81 level.
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Gold: After the price broke below the yellow zone overnight, a V-shaped rebound occurred as expected following the liquidity sweep. Today, we are closely monitoring the support at the lower boundary of the converging triangle pattern and the momentum signal after a breakout above the upper boundary. For detailed levels, please consult the plugin.
(Gold 15-minute chart)
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Nasdaq: Prices have repeatedly hit new lows overnight, but after a rebound following the liquidation phase, they have failed to reach new highs. Given the excessive intraday volatility, we are choosing to temporarily hold off. For detailed positions, please consult the plugin.
(NASDAQ 15-minute chart)
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Crude oil: Prices continue to trend downward with volatility, and the main pattern going forward will likely be a rally followed by a pullback. The key level separating bulls and bears for today is in the blue zone; if it breaks down and retraces, we suggest attempting a sell opportunity. For detailed levels, please consult the plugin.
(Crude Oil 15-minute Chart)
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Today’s key financial data and events to watch:
20:30 U.S. June PCE YoY
