Market Focus Analysis:
Pulse Focus 1: South Korea’s stock market decline weighed on global tech stocks, with U.S. tech-related shares broadly falling overnight, sending the Nasdaq down more than 1%.
Focus Analysis: The core contradiction behind this round of South Korean stock sell-off remains on the long side’s deleveraging—margin calls triggered by credit financing and pro-cyclical rebalancing of leveraged single-stock ETFs, creating a negative feedback loop in which the two major weighted stocks experience “the more they fall, the more they are sold.” Currently, margin balances are only 7.9% below their peak level, insufficient to confirm that deleveraging has been fully completed.
Asset reminder: The Nasdaq 100 index failed to reclaim the 29,500 level, increasing short-term downside risk. Watch the key support level around 28,500; if a rebound does not occur at this point, the trend may weaken further.
Pulse Focus 2: On Thursday night, the United States carried out airstrikes on multiple bridges inside Iran. According to Persian media reports, several bridge attacks occurred in Bandar Abbas and surrounding areas that evening, after which the highway connecting the city to neighboring provinces was declared closed.
Focus Analysis: The U.S. airstrikes on Iran have now entered their seventh day. Without deploying ground forces, the U.S. air campaign has nearly reached its maximum pressure point, as attacks have begun targeting civilian infrastructure. If Iran continues to resist firmly, both sides’ red lines may soon converge.
Asset alert: Gold broke below the 4,000 level overnight, technically opening the door for further downside. However, recent market movements have been primarily driven by sudden geopolitical developments, which may come quickly and fade just as fast. Going short below 4,000 requires careful position control. With higher uncertainty risks over the weekend, it’s advisable to temporarily hold off and observe.
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Gold: After breaking below the yellow zone overnight, prices rebounded but failed to return above 4017, failing to trigger a long entry. Today, we will continue monitoring the key support/resistance level around 4000/4015; once this area is reclaimed, consider buying on pullbacks for confirmation. For detailed positioning, please consult the plugin.
(Gold 15-minute chart)
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Nasdaq: Yesterday’s price drop indeed swept away liquidity below 29,500, but there was no rebound to reclaim the level. Closely monitor today’s recovery around the 29,600 area and watch for momentum signals to enter. For detailed positions, please consult the plugin.
(NASDAQ 15-minute chart)
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Crude oil: Trading within a wide range with strong uncertainty. The impact of the attacks on oil prices has significantly diminished compared to the initial days. Therefore, we recommend maintaining a wait-and-see approach for today. For detailed positions, please consult the plugin.
(Crude Oil 15-minute Chart)
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Today’s key financial data and events to watch:
20:30 U.S. June Building Permits (annualized, in thousands)
21:15 U.S. Industrial Production YoY for June
22:00 Initial estimate of U.S. one-year inflation expectations for July
22:00 U.S. July University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Preliminary Value
